By freezing the frame just before the club reaches horizontal, you can see that your arms are lifted but you've hardly turned your shoulders, hence the club has gone outside the line. Having said that, your top of backswing position looks quite good to me.
I think your main problem is with your downswing. You are coming over the top because your shoulders and hips are unwinding too quickly for the speed of you arms.
You could try starting the downswing by pulling the arms down as if you were bell ringing.
If that doesn't work I think you need to change the way your legs work on the backswing so that they both resist the turn of the upper body. That way you'll be able to start the downswing with a weight shift rather than an immediate rotation.