Genesis Invitational Betting Tips: 25/1 and 33/1 picks for PGA Tour glory at Riviera

After going agonisingly close with a charging Scottie Scheffler at Pebble Beach last week, it’s time to dust ourselves down and attack the Genesis Invitational at Riviera with a fresh plan.

Scheffler did just about everything right on Sunday at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, but when you’re backing players at short prices, you need everything to fall into place. At 3/1 this week, the World No.1 is understandably favourite again – but those odds leave very little margin for error. So rather than pile into the obvious, I’m looking a little further down the board for value in the PGA Tour’s second Signature Event of the season.

This year’s Genesis Invitational is particularly special. First staged in 1926, the tournament celebrates its 100-year anniversary and returns to its spiritual home, Riviera Country Club, after last year’s enforced move to Torrey Pines due to the devastating Los Angeles wildfires. Hosted by Tiger Woods in support of his TGR Foundation, the 72-man tournament once again boasts a stacked field, with the likes of Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, defending champion Ludvig Aberg and last week's Pebble Beach champion Collin Morikawa all teeing it up.

Unlike at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, there is a 36-hole cut at the Genesis Invitational. The top 50 and ties, plus any player within 10 shots of the lead, will play the weekend. 

Riviera is a proper ball-striker’s test. You need to control your irons, manage tricky Poa annua greens and shape shots both ways off the tee. It’s rarely a putting contest alone – approach play and composure under pressure tend to separate the contenders from the pack.

With that in mind, I’m keeping things tight this week: just two selections at 25/1 and 33/1. 

Both arrive in encouraging form. Both have strong Riviera credentials. And both, in my view, are overdue a big win on the PGA Tour. 

Let’s get into it...

PICK 1

Patrick Cantlay – 25/1

Patrick Cantlay might divide opinion with his deliberate pace of play, but there’s no doubting his pedigree – and I’ve got a feeling 2026 could be the year he reminds everyone just how good he really is. He’s quietly building something.

Cantlay’s early-season form reads steadily rather than spectacularly: T13 at The American Express, a missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open, then a solid T14 at Pebble Beach. But it was the manner of that Pebble finish that really caught my eye.

On Sunday, Cantlay didn’t miss a single green in regulation. Not one. He led the field in strokes gained on approach and signed for a bogey-free 65. That’s the kind of iron play you need at Riviera. If you’re striping your mid-irons there, you’re going to give yourself a serious chance.

Yes, he hasn’t won since the 2022 BMW Championship. Yes, he’s slipped to 28th in the Official World Golf Ranking. But form in golf is rarely linear, and when you start to see elite approach numbers paired with clean final rounds, that’s usually a sign something’s brewing.

Then there’s his Riviera record.

Despite never winning here, Cantlay has been consistently excellent. He finished fourth in 2018, third in 2023 and fourth again in 2024. He also recorded a fifth-place finish last year when the event was staged at Torrey Pines. Add in several other top-20s and it’s clear this is a course where he sees the shots and feels comfortable.

That combination – trending iron play and a genuine affinity for the venue – is exactly what I look for when tipping at Riviera.

Of course, if Scheffler brings his absolute A-game, he can blow the field away. We saw that with his closing 63 at Pebble Beach. But at 3/1, you’re paying a premium for dominance. At 25/1, Cantlay offers far more value for a player with his course record and pedigree.

He ticks the form box, he ticks the course box, and he looks ready to contend.

PICK 2

Sam Burns – 33/1

If we’re being honest, Sam Burns probably should have won last week.

For 13 holes on Sunday at Pebble Beach, he looked like he had complete control. His irons were dialled in, he was rolling the putter beautifully, and he carried himself like a man about to end a drought.

Then came a dreaded three-putt from 40 feet on the par-5 14th.

That felt like the turning point. The wind seemed to come out of his sails. A plugged lie in a greenside bunker on 17 didn’t help, and a conservative play off the tee on 18 – opting for iron rather than trying to launch a driver with the wind off the left – effectively ended any outside hopes of forcing the issue.

He eventually carded a 67 to finish three shots behind Morikawa in T6, but it felt much closer than that.

Burns hasn’t won since March 2023 (and that was match play). His last individual strokeplay title came in May 2022. For a five-time PGA Tour winner with his talent level, that’s a barren run. But the positive is that he finally looked like himself again.

Prior to Pebble, his 2026 campaign had been underwhelming: T27 at The American Express and a missed cut at the WM Phoenix Open. Last week was different. The ball-striking sharpened up, and the confidence returned.

And like Cantlay, Burns has strong Riviera form to lean on.

He finished third here in 2021, a week where he broke the 36-hole scoring record before agonisingly missing out on a playoff by a single shot. That performance proved he can go toe-to-toe with the best on this layout. He also added a T10 in 2024.

That’s two significant results on a course that demands controlled aggression and elite approach play.

Burns is now 27th in the world, and for me, he’s trending in the right direction. Golf is often about timing – catching a player just as confidence returns. At 33/1, with bookmakers paying a quarter the odds for the first five places, this feels like the right time to side with him.

If he carries 80–90% of last Sunday’s level into Riviera, he’s firmly in the mix.

The Shorter Prices

It would be foolish not to acknowledge the head of the market.

Scheffler at 3/1 is completely understandable. He’s the best player on the planet, and when he finds that extra gear – like the 63 at Pebble – he’s virtually untouchable. If you want to back him again, I couldn’t put you off. He’s that good.

McIlroy at around 12/1 will also tempt plenty. His flawless 64 on Sunday was his best golf of the year so far, and he has produced some strong performances at Riviera in the past. If the driver behaves, he’s always a danger on a course that rewards high-quality ball-striking.

But from a pure betting perspective, I’d rather attack this week with two players in the mid-range who combine form, course history and hunger.

Final Verdict

So, we keep it simple:

• Patrick Cantlay – 25/1
• Sam Burns – 33/1

Both arrive off encouraging weeks at Pebble Beach. Both have proven they can contend at Riviera. Both feel overdue a statement win.

With enhanced place terms available, there’s solid each-way value on offer – but let’s be honest, we’re not just playing for places. We’re hunting a winner.

Riviera is one of the purest tests on the PGA Tour calendar. If our two can replicate the iron play and composure they showed last week, we’ll have every chance of getting back in the green at the Genesis Invitational.

Scroll down to check out all the players in the field and their starting prices... 

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