Ryder Cup 2025: Patrick Cantlay's "gin theory" dismissed golf analyst

Golf Channel analyst Brandel Chamblee has questioned the validity of comments made by Patrick Cantlay regarding the reasons for Team USA “underperforming” in the Ryder Cup.

Ahead of the 2021 contest at Whistling Straits, Cantlay appeared to imply the American team were unlucky to lose certain matches to statistically-inferior opposition, particularly in away fixtures as Europe have not been beaten at home since 1993.

Cantlay compared the Ryder Cup to playing many hands of gin, insinuating the the US side had often been dealt some “bad cards”, according to former PGA Tour pro Chamblee.

In a long-winded post on his X account, Chamblee acknowledged that Team USA go into every Ryder Cup with a higher average world ranking, but he hinted that Europe’s superior team ethic was a significant advantage, while being regarded as the underdog every two years was also a factor.

Chamblee wrote: “Circling back on this point and trying to more accurately understand how the USA’s historical advantage in the Ryder Cup can be quantified, and their consistent underperformance understood, in the lead up to the Ryder Cup.

“In September of 2021 Patrick Cantlay said, when asked about the lopsided results in the Ryder Cup: ‘If you play enough gin hands, a one or two percent difference in skill translates to almost an assured win over many, many, many hands of gin.

“‘But you could have a big difference between somebody, maybe a 60 to 40 percent skill level difference, and gin is still chancy enough to where you could play 10 hands and lose six or seven of the hands than someone that's much worse than you skill-wise’.

“It seems to me that he is insinuating that the USA has been getting bad cards, or unlucky, but several people have commented that he was merely trying to point out that the Ryder Cup was fairly even contest, more like a flip of a coin, and that the results would even out over time.

“Fair enough. But he did state that a one to two percent advantage was significant and would translate to an almost assured win over time. So what percentage of advantage does the USA have and how does that translate into a win probability?”

Chamblee went on to detail the difference in average world rankings since 1987, but he insisted that Total Strokes Gained was a better indicator of working out the most likely Ryder Cup winners over 504 matches.

He calculated that Team USA had an overall statistical advantage of 3.7 percent which should have earned them victories in 271 matches, yet they have won “just 242.5 points out of a possible 504 and only 6 Ryder Cups out of a possible 18."

Chamblee added: “Like gin a small statistical advantage is a massive gulf at the elite level of professional golf and over “many many many” matches, or hands of gin, it should prove to be decisive.

“But unlike gin, the Ryder Cup is about group dynamics and can be significantly affected by psychological, tactical and situational factors. One such factor is that of being the underdog and Europe has consistently been able to maximise the psychological edge in playing that role.”

Former PGA Tour winner Chamblee is never shy in offering his opinion. 

Last week, he delivered a devastating message to Team USA ahead of the 2025 matches.