Houston Open Golf Betting Tips 2026: Expert Picks after back-to-back winners on PGA Tour

GolfMagic’s PGA Tour betting tips are absolutely flying right now — and long may that continue.

We’ve strung together three profitable weeks on the spin, starting with each-way returns on Collin Morikawa at 30/1 at Bay Hill, before landing back-to-back winners with Cameron Young at 35/1 at The Players Championship and Matt Fitzpatrick at 22/1 at the Valspar Championship.

Two winners and three strong weeks in a row is about as good as it gets in this game. 

So the big question now is simple: can we make it four in a row in Texas?

Let’s take a closer look at this week’s Houston Open and where the value might lie.

We return once again to Memorial Park Golf Course, a par-70 layout measuring 7,475 yards. On paper it looks fairly average by modern PGA Tour standards, but in reality it offers a well-rounded and subtly demanding test.

Originally designed by John Bredemus, the course underwent a major renovation in 2019 led by Tom Doak, with input from Brooks Koepka. The redesign has given Memorial Park a much more modern feel, with a strong emphasis on strategy and creativity.

One of the most notable changes was the reduction in bunkering, with the number of traps cut dramatically and replaced by tightly mown run-off areas. That shift has placed far less emphasis on traditional sand saves and much more on touch and imagination around the greens.

The MiniVerde Bermuda greens typically run at around 12 on the stimpmeter, providing quick, true surfaces, while the rough is kept relatively short. All of that encourages players to be aggressive off the tee and take the course on.

Now in its sixth consecutive year hosting this event, Memorial Park has developed a clear identity. It is a venue that rewards power and attacking play, and recent leaderboards have been dominated by big hitters who are able to take full advantage.

From a betting perspective, the Houston Open has also been a happy hunting ground for value. Tony Finau’s win at 16/1 in 2022 remains the shortest-priced victory in recent years, which tells you everything you need to know about the opportunities available further down the market.

All signs point towards another birdie-friendly shootout.

Scottie Scheffler WD: What it means for the betting market

There’s been a significant shift in the betting landscape this week after Scottie Scheffler withdrew from the Houston Open. 

Scheffler, who opened as a clear 7/2 favourite and our lead pick, withdrew on Tuesday. Not due to injury, but to be with his wife Meredith as they await the birth of their second child.

Naturally, that changes everything. With the World No.1 stepping aside, the market has opened up considerably. 

GolfMagic Editor Andy Roberts has gone back to the drawing board, keeping one of his original selections while adding two new picks at attractive odds. Let’s dive into the revised trio...

Texas Children’s Houston Open 2026: Betting Tips

Pick 1: Min Woo Lee (14/1)

Min Woo Lee looks an obvious starting point, but sometimes the obvious play is the right one.

The defending champion arrives at Memorial Park arguably a stronger and more complete player than he was 12 months ago when he claimed the title with a brilliant 20-under-par performance, edging out Scheffler by a single shot.

That result alone highlights just how well this course suits him. He’s only played here once and he won, which is about as compelling as course form gets.

Memorial Park clearly plays into his strengths. He is one of the most powerful drivers on Tour, ranking highly in strokes gained off the tee, total driving and overall distance. This is a layout where players can be aggressive, and Lee thrives in that kind of environment.

With Scheffler now out of the field, the path looks even clearer for him to contend again. But it’s not just about course fit — his recent form backs it up too.

The powerful Australian arrives in Texas off the back of finishes of second, sixth and twelfth in three of his last four starts, which suggests he is right on the cusp of another win.

When you combine that level of consistency with proven success at the venue, it becomes a very strong case.

At best odds of 14/1, there still looks to be value in the price. Personally, I’ll be backing him outright to go back-to-back.

Pick 2: Sam Burns (25/1)

Sam Burns is another player who stands out at the prices, and he feels like someone who could be ready to strike.

It’s been three years since his last PGA Tour victory, but there have been encouraging signs in recent weeks that his game is trending back in the right direction.

His performance at The Players Championship was particularly eye-catching. After opening with a disappointing 76 that effectively took him out of contention, he showed real character to bounce back with rounds of 68 and a pair of 69s to climb into a tie for 13th. That kind of response says a lot about where his game is mentally and technically.

Earlier in the season, he also posted a top-six finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and while there have been a couple of missed cuts along the way, the overall picture is one of gradual improvement.

This week’s setup should suit him nicely. He is a long hitter who is more than capable of taking advantage of the generous driving conditions at Memorial Park, and he remains one of the better putters on Tour, which is always a key combination on a course like this.

There’s also some solid course history to lean on. He finished tied seventh here in both 2020 and 2021, which shows he’s comfortable with what Memorial Park demands.

Having skipped the Valspar Championship last week, he also comes in fresh, which could be a significant advantage.

All things considered, he looks slightly underpriced at best odds of 25/1. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him back in the winner’s circle this Sunday, and I’m happy to take him outright.

Pick 3: Marco Penge (30/1) – Each-Way

For an each-way angle, Marco Penge makes plenty of appeal.

The Englishman fits the Memorial Park profile perfectly as one of the longer hitters on Tour, and he arrives in excellent spirits after a superb tied-fourth finish at the Valspar Championship.

What really stood out last week was how comfortable he looked in contention. He managed to get himself into a share of the lead on the back nine on Sunday before just falling short, and that experience should serve him very well going forward.

The switch in course setup this week could also play right into the Englishman's hands. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook last week demanded precision and discipline, whereas Memorial Park this week is far more forgiving off the tee and allows players to much more aggressive. That should give Penge the freedom to use his biggest strength and create more birdie opportunities.

The fact that he hasn’t played here before isn’t a major concern. He showed last week that he can adapt quickly to a new test, and with a few practice rounds under his belt, there’s no reason he can’t do the same again.

There are also positive signs away from the course, with his family now back travelling with him following the recent arrival of his second child. That added comfort and stability seemed to have a positive impact last week, and it could do so again here.

He’s already proven he knows how to win, with three titles on the DP World Tour, and recent performances suggest he’s getting closer to making a breakthrough on the PGA Tour as well.

At best odds of 30/1, with each-way terms available, he looks like a really solid value play.

Final Thoughts

Confidence is high — and for good reason.

Three profitable weeks, two outright winners, and we head into Texas with plenty of momentum.

Scheffler’s withdrawal has shaken up the market, but it has also created opportunities, and this revised trio all have strong cases to go well at Memorial Park.

If one of them can deliver, we’re looking at four profitable weeks in a row.

With The Masters just around the corner, now is the time to stay hot. I already have three confident selections for Augusta National, so stay tuned for those in two weeks' time. 

Good luck with your bets this week — and as always, please gamble responsibly.

Scroll down to check all the players in the field and their pre-tournament prices...