Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Tips: Can anyone stop Scottie Scheffler at Bay Hill?

GolfMagic’s betting column rolls into one of the standout weeks of the PGA Tour season as the Arnold Palmer Invitational returns to Bay Hill — and once again, our resident expert and GolfMagic Editor Andy Roberts is ready to steer you in the right direction.

Before we look ahead, let’s quickly reflect on what was a very encouraging week for our tips, albeit rather painful. 

On the PGA Tour, we delivered strong value at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches with Shane Lowry (16/1) finishing runner-up after heartbreakingly surrendering a late lead. It was a shocking collapse if truth be told, and one that will likely take the Irishman some time to get over, especially as he tried to win in front of his young daughter for the first ever time. 

Nicolai Højgaard (25/1) also rewarded our faith with a tied sixth-place finish at PGA National, meaning we had two excellent PGA Tour selections firmly in the mix all week. 

Over on the DP World Tour, Hennie du Plessis (22/1) also delivered for us with a runner-up finish at the South African Open. At one stage over the weekend, it genuinely felt like we might land a big double across both tours. Du Plessis gave us a terrific run before being edged out by Casey Jarvis, who claimed a second consecutive DP World Tour title. 

But the real sting came in Florida. 

Lowry had surged into a three-shot lead with three holes remaining and at 16/1 we were already picturing the payout. Unfortunately, a costly double-double-par finish saw him slip two shots behind eventual winner Nico Echavarria. It was a brutal way to lose, but the performance was there and the value was undeniable.

Anyway, we move on with confidence...

This week, we're focusing entirely on the PGA Tour’s latest $20 million Signature Event — the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill.

This 72-man tournament is about far more than prize money. It is a celebration of Arnold Palmer, the seven-time major champion affectionately known as “The King.” 

Since 2007, Bay Hill’s flagship event has proudly carried his name. Palmer’s legacy extends well beyond his achievements on the course — his charisma, accessibility and connection with fans built “Arnie’s Army” and helped make golf a truly global sport. 

Although Mr Palmer passed away in 2016, just days after his 87th birthday, his presence is still deeply felt at his beloved Bay Hill.

Now, onto business...

We’re keeping things simple this week with two selections — one at the very top of the market, and one offering some decent each-way value.

After going agonisingly close last week, we’re determined to find you a winner.

Let's dive in...

ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL BETTING TIPS

SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER – 7/2

Let’s not overcomplicate this.

Scottie Scheffler is the best player in the world and the man to beat at Bay Hill.

Yes, 7/2 is skinny. But sometimes the obvious bet is the right bet.

Scheffler is chasing a third Arnold Palmer Invitational title and has already won twice at Bay Hill in the past four seasons. He clearly adores this golf course. It suits every strength in his game.

His recent PGA Tour starts have followed a similar pattern — slow beginnings before surging through the field over the weekend. If he finds a fast start this week, which I believe he will, this could get out of hand quickly.

Bay Hill is a ball-striker’s paradise.

Precision off the tee is critical. Water is in play across much of the layout. Greens in regulation are paramount. You simply cannot fake it around here.

The stats back that up:

• Eight of the last nine winners ranked inside the top 10 for Greens in Regulation.
• The last nine champions ranked 3rd, 1st, 14th, 8th, 2nd, 5th, 13th, 7th, 13th and 4th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.

That tells you everything — you must flush it to win here.

Scheffler currently ranks seventh on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and leads the Tour in Strokes Gained: Total this season. 

When you combine elite ball striking with the best all-round numbers in the game, you get a very clear favourite.

Rory McIlroy at 9/1 is a huge threat and currently tops the Tee-to-Green rankings. But when both players are firing on all cylinders, Scheffler just edges it — particularly on a layout where he has already proven he can dominate.

There’s also the bigger picture.

The Players Championship is next week. The Masters is only a month away. Scheffler will want to stamp his authority on the season heading into the most important stretch of the year. 

He is the class horse in this race. 

Even his B-game could be enough to win at Bay Hill. If the A-game shows up? It might be a question of margin rather than outcome.

Now for our second pick...

COLLIN MORIKAWA – 30/1

Now we’re talking.

If you want a much more appetising price, 30/1 about Collin Morikawa looks outstanding value.

Morikawa already has a PGA Tour victory in 2026, having claimed the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am earlier this season. 

He then followed that up with a strong tie for seventh at the Genesis Invitational at Riviera — effectively a home game for the Los Angeles native.

After a week’s rest, he arrives at Bay Hill fresh — and with unfinished business.

And let's be honest: he should have won this tournament in 2025.

Morikawa built a three-shot lead with five holes to play before Russell Henley denied him late on. It wasn’t quite as painful as Lowry’s collapse last week, but it was close. It felt like a tournament that slipped through his fingers.

There’s redemption on the line.

He’s never won at Bay Hill. Adding this prestigious title to his résumé would mean a great deal.

By his own high standards, 2025 was a frustrating year. But in 2026 he looks far more like the Morikawa we know — composed, confident and smiling again on the golf course.

And when Morikawa is happy, he is dangerous.

He's also back to fifth in the world. 

Morikawa remains one of the purest iron players in the world. 

Bay Hill demands elite approach play and disciplined strategy — both suit him perfectly. 

The only lingering question has sometimes been the putter, but early signs this season suggest he’s holing the key putts again, something aided by stealing Kurt Kitayama's putter! 

At 30/1, with bookmakers offering 1/4 odds for the first five places, there’s serious each-way value here. A place effectively returns around 15/2 — excellent insurance for a player of this calibre.

But I’m not just backing him for a place.

I genuinely believe this week could come down to Scheffler versus Morikawa on Sunday evening.

Final Thoughts

We’re keeping it simple this week:

• Scottie Scheffler (7/2)
• Collin Morikawa (30/1 e/w)

If you’re cautious, you could wait for round one before backing Scheffler given the tight price. He hasn’t been flying out of the blocks lately, but I have a strong feeling he’ll be determined to post something low early at Bay Hill.

Scheffler loves this course and he quite simply thrives here.

And if he turns up with his best stuff, the rest may well be playing for second.

As always, please gamble responsibly. Scroll down to check out all the latest pre-tournament odds for every player in the field...