U.S. Open Betting Tips: Expert Picks to land golf's third major of the season at Shinnecock Hills

GolfMagic Editor and expert tipster Andy Roberts returns with his selections for the third major championship of the season as the world's best players head to the iconic Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in New York.

Last week proved frustrating at the RBC Canadian Open. Both picks Tommy Fleetwood and Sam Burns put themselves firmly in contention and even started the weekend as the market leaders, but disappointing closing performances ultimately cost us. Fleetwood finished tied 11th while Burns slipped to 20th after a difficult final round.

It wasn't a complete disaster by any means — both players gave us a genuine run for our money — but it was certainly a missed opportunity for us to land a fourth outright winner of the 2026 PGA Tour season. 

The PGA Tour has been producing plenty of surprises lately, with Aaron Rai, J.T. Poston and Bud Cauley all landing victories at triple-figure odds in three of the last five weeks.

With that in mind, let's turn our attention to the U.S. Open and look to bounce back in style.

Shinnecock is widely regarded as one of the toughest venues in major championship golf. 

The par-70 layout stretches to just under 7,500 yards, but its real defence lies in its punishing rough, firm fairways, lightning-fast greens and relentless exposure to the elements.

Many analysts expect the winning score to be over par, just as it was when Brooks Koepka won by a shot here on one-over par in 2018. 

While course form is somewhat limited given the eight-year gap since then, there are still some useful clues to work with.

Koepka is priced up at best odds of 40/1 as he chases a third U.S. Open title and sixth major championship. 

However, his withdrawal from the RBC Canadian Open with a hand injury on Sunday raises obvious concerns. Anyone considering backing him may wish to wait for further updates on his fitness before Thursday's opening round.

Interestingly, the player who finished runner-up to Koepka in 2018 features among my selections this week, which you can see below. 

Can anyone stop Scottie Scheffler?

Scottie Scheffler heads the betting as he attempts to complete the career Grand Slam and become just the seventh player in history to achieve the feat.

Adding another layer of intrigue, Sunday's final round falls on his 30th birthday, so if you're looking for a storybook ending, it's certainly there.

At a best price of 13/2, though, I can't quite get involved.

Scheffler hasn't been poor by any stretch. In fact, he's recorded 12 consecutive top-25 finishes to begin the 2026 season. 

In fact, you have to go all the way back to August 2024 at the BMW Championship for the last time Scheffler finished outside the top 25. 

The main issue is that we've only seen one win from the world number one so far this season, which came at The American Express in his first start of 2026. 

Those are outstanding numbers for almost anyone else, but by Scheffler's high standards, it feels slightly below the level we've become accustomed to seeing.

Could he make 13/2 look enormous by Sunday evening? Absolutely, of course he could. 

But on a golf course as demanding as Shinnecock, I'd rather look elsewhere for value.

The same applies to Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm, who sit second and third in the market at around 12/1 and 16/1 respectively. 

Both European Ryder Cup heroes are capable of winning, but from a betting perspective I'm looking for bigger prices.

Right, let's dive in to my three picks...

U.S. Open 2026 Betting Tips

Pick 1: Tommy Fleetwood

Best Odds: 22/1

Tommy Fleetwood will have left Canada wondering what might have been.

The 35-year-old Englishman simply couldn't buy a putt during Sunday's final round at TPC Toronto, losing significant ground on the greens and failing to convert several chances from inside 10 feet. 

A level-par 70 saw him finish six shots behind eventual winner Bud Cauley despite beginning the weekend still among the favourites.

The encouraging news is that almost everything else looked excellent.

Fleetwood ranked inside the top 10 for both strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained approach, while his driving was particularly impressive. 

He finished third in driving accuracy, finding 42 of 56 fairways throughout the week, and that's exactly the type of profile I'm looking for heading into Shinnecock Hills.

Finding fairways here is absolutely critical. The rough is severe, the bunkering is penal, and players will need to play from the short grass if they're going to contend.

Fleetwood's iron play in Canada wasn't quite at its usual elite level, ranking just outside the top 30 for greens in regulation, but that doesn't concern me too much. He's one of the finest ball strikers in world golf and I fully expect that part of his game to sharpen up.

More importantly, we know he loves this golf course.

Back in 2018 he produced one of the greatest final rounds in U.S. Open history, firing a course-record 63 to finish just one shot behind Koepka. 

Other standout results for Fleetwood in the U.S. Open include a solo fourth at Erin Hills (2017) and tied fifth at Los Angeles CC (2023). 

The U.S. Open is notoriously difficult to predict though, it must be said. One loose swing can derail an entire championship. But Fleetwood's patient, methodical style feels tailor-made for this examination.

He doesn't need to overpower the course. The world number six simply needs to split fairways, hit greens and accumulate pars.

Birdies will be precious this week. Pars will feel like birdies.

Fleetwood remains in search of a first major title, but it feels increasingly like that breakthrough is coming. 

Prior to Canada he finished tied fifth at the Truist Championship and tied fourth at the Memorial Tournament, underlining the consistency in his game.

After McIlroy won The Masters and Aaron Rai captured the PGA Championship, perhaps another British major champion is on the horizon in 2026. 

The reigning FedEx Cup champion looks a big price at 22/1 to finally get over a major line. 

Now for my second pick...

Pick 2: Matt Fitzpatrick

Best Odds: 25/1

Matt Fitzpatrick arrives at Shinnecock Hills as arguably the hottest player in world golf.

The 31-year-old Englishman already has three victories this season, one of which came alongside his brother Alex at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans.

A former U.S. Open champion, Fitzpatrick looks perfectly suited to the challenge awaiting this week.

Much like Fleetwood, he thrives on accuracy, discipline and intelligent course management rather than raw power. Those qualities are invaluable around Shinnecock.

His recent form is impossible to ignore. 

Fitzpatrick finished runner-up at the RBC Canadian Open and looked superb throughout the week. 

That marked his second runner-up finish of the season, having also assumed that spot at The Players Championship in March. 

At the RBC Canadian Open last week, Fitzpatrick ranked among the leaders in driving accuracy and greens in regulation while finishing fifth in strokes gained approach and second in strokes gained total.

Every area of his game appears to be firing.

He also posted a respectable tie for 12th when Shinnecock last hosted the U.S. Open in 2018, despite being a significantly less accomplished player than he is today.

Now ranked fourth in the world, Fitzpatrick looks capable of adding a second U.S. Open title to the one he won at Brookline in 2022.

While Fitzpatrick's victory in 2022 remains his only top-10 finish in 11 U.S. Open appearances, recent history shows that repeat champions are very possible. 

Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau have both won multiple U.S. Opens in recent years, and Fitzpatrick has, without question, the game to join that club.

Confidence is clearly high following victories at the Valspar, RBC Heritage and Zurich Classic, and among the market leaders he looks one of the few players arriving with every department of his game in excellent shape.

At 25/1, there's plenty to like.

Want someone at double the odds? Okay, I've got you covered with my last pick...

PICK 3: Russell Henley

Best Odds: 50/1

If you're looking for a value play, Russell Henley stands out amongst the crowd. 

The 37-year-old American secured the sixth PGA Tour victory of his career with a superb win at the Charles Schwab Challenge last month and arrives at Shinnecock Hills fresh after taking last week off.

Henley isn't the longest hitter in the field, but I don't think that's a major disadvantage here.

He proved that when finishing a respectable tied 25th here in 2018, and he has chalked up back to back top-10 finishes in the U.S. Open with a tied seventh at Pinehurst (2024) and tied 10th at Oakmont (2025). 

What he does exceptionally well is keep the golf ball in play.

In fact, he currently leads the PGA Tour in driving accuracy, finding 72% of fairways this season. 

On a course where positioning is everything this week, that's a significant weapon.

Henley also ranks 12th in strokes gained total for the season, highlighting just how complete his overall game has become.

Like Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick, he excels at plotting his way around difficult golf courses rather than overpowering them.

Henley's putting hasn't quite reached its very best levels this year, but he's still a solid performer on the greens and more than capable of taking advantage when opportunities arise.

This week's championship won't be won through making endless birdies. 

It will be won through control, patience and avoiding costly mistakes, and those are all areas where Henley excels.

At 50/1, the world number five looks significantly overpriced and represents excellent each-way value before day one. 

Andy's three picks for the 2026 U.S. Open

• Tommy Fleetwood (22/1)
• Matt Fitzpatrick (25/1)
• Russell Henley (50/1)

Many bookmakers are offering enhanced each-way terms this week, with some paying 1/5 odds top 10 places. 

I'll be playing Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick on the nose, with Henley in the places. 

As always, shop around for the best value before placing any bets. But most importantly, please gamble responsibly.

Scroll down to check out all the pre-tournament prices for the 2026 U.S. Open...