10 fascinating stats to pay close attention to ahead of the Tour Championship
GolfMagic crunches some key numbers ahead of the PGA Tour's FedEx Cup finale at East Lake.
GolfMagic has crunched some key numbers ahead of the Tour Championship to help you determine who may very well win the PGA Tour's coveted FedEx Cup and huge $18m bonus at East Lake.
While the staggered scoring start is still something of a work in progress in the eyes of many such as Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele, what we do know is that World No.1 Scottie Scheffler holds a two-stroke advantage heading into the FedEx Cup finale whether we all like it or not.
If Zach Johnson dodges Brooks Koepka for a Ryder Cup pick then he truly hates LIV Golf
— Andy Roberts (@AndyRobertsGolf) August 22, 2023
Scheffler has somehow only won twice on the PGA Tour this season, something many of us find hard to fathom given just how dominant he has been from tee to green ever since defending his WM Phoenix Open title in February shortly before winning the flagship Players Championship in March.
To whet your appetite ahead of the FedEx Cup finale, GolfMagic has crunched some numbers and come up with 10 key stats that might go some way to helping you find the winner of the 2023 Tour Championship.
Jon Rahm on gambling interactions in crowd on PGA Tour: "We hear it every single round"
— Andy Roberts (@AndyRobertsGolf) August 22, 2023
The tournament also marks the final counting event in our season-long GolfMagic Fantasy Game, so perhaps you can pick up some pointers before selecting your team.
Our highest points scorer this week will win a Callaway Paradym Driver!
While Scheffler holds the advantage heading into the tournament at odds of 13/8, recent years have proven you can certainly win the FedEx Cup when starting well off the pace.
It just helps if your name is Rory McIlroy.
Right, let's crunch some numbers...
10 stats to pay close attention to at the Tour Championship
21
The last three winners of the Tour Championship (Dustin Johnson 2020, Patrick Cantlay 2021, McIlroy 2022) have all finished on 21-under par.
10
Two of the four winners since the staggered scoring system began in 2019 have won the Tour Championship when starting out in the lead at 10-under par.
Johnson (2020) and Cantlay (2021) both began at 10-under par and as tournament favourites in their respective years before going on to win the FedEx Cup.
Cantlay won by one stroke over Rahm, while Johnson won by three strokes over Schauffele and Justin Thomas.
38
Scheffler's win probablilty is 38% starting out with a two-stroke lead, according to the PGA Tour stats guru Justin Ray.
62
Another interesting little stat to watch out for this week is that Scheffler is on the verge of matching Tiger Woods' historic greens in regulation statistic from the 2000 PGA Tour season, a year which saw the golf legend win three straight majors among nine victories overall that season.
It was also a year where he locked up the career grand slam.
Scheffler needs to hit 62 greens in regulation at East Lake this week (so he can afford to miss just 10 greens!), which is one more than his best-ever at a PGA Tour event, in order to replicate Woods' long-standing 75% greens hit in one season statistic from 2000.
4
McIlroy is going for an impressive fourth FedEx Cup title this week having etched his name on the coveted trophy in 2016, 2019 and 2022.
The Northern Irishman won in a three-man playoff in 2016, before trouncing his opponents by four strokes in 2019 and just a solitary shot in 2022.
6
Six is the most amount of strokes a FedEx Cup champion has started off the pace in the first round at the Tour Championship, a record that of course belongs to McIlroy following his record-breaking third victory at East Lake last season.
Incredibly, McIlroy opened last year's Tour Championship with a triple-bogey and bogey, quickly leaving him 10 strokes behind.
But he bounced back to finish 21-under par, enough for a narrow one-stroke victory over Scheffler and Sungjae Im.
McIlroy also set the record in 2022 for the largest-ever final-round comeback at the Tour Championship of six strokes.
28
Without turning this too much into a McIlroy article, he's currently on the longest active streak of 28 consecutive rounds at par or better heading into the Tour Championship.
I'm not even sure I've made 28 pars or better this season come to think of it!
66
If you are looking for a player to spring out the pack at tasty odds, you may just want to favour Schauffele who is a combined 66-under par at East Lake since 2017.
That is 11 strokes better than anyone else.
Schauffele will need plenty of birdies this week that's for sure though as he starts well off the pace at 3-under par.
That would be a record comeback win at the Tour Championship should he pull it off.
23
There are few PGA Tour events where Woods doesn't hold at least one record, and the Tour Championship isn't one of them.
Woods holds the tournament record score at East Lake of 23-under par, set when he won by a record eight strokes in 2007.
Sadly Woods isn't around to compete this week but he was sighted on the course at the weekend alongside his young cub Charlie Woods as his comeback (hopefully) draws ever closer on the PGA Tour.
67
He might be starting this week five strokes behind Scheffler, but 43-year-old Lucas Glover has every chance to win this week given he is in the form of his life right now.
The recent back-to-back winner on the PGA Tour currently has an impressive 67.29 scoring average going since the Rocket Mortgage Classic in early July.
Glover also has the extra incentive of giving himself one last push to earn a captain's pick in the US Ryder Cup team for the first time in his career.
Zach Johnson will make his six captain's picks on August 29.
Horses for Courses:
Rory McIlroy: East Lake is one of his favourite venues on the PGA Tour, and it's easy to see why when he's won a record three FedEx Cup titles here since 2016; McIlroy starts three strokes behind Scheffler but it would not be a surprise in the slightest to see him etch his name on the trophy again.
Xander Schauffele: As we have already highlighted above, Schauffele simply loves it here; he won the Tour Championship in 2017 (albeit before the FedEx Cup changed its format) and he has since gone on to finish runner-up in the FedEx Cup in both 2019 and 2020, the latter which saw him shoot the lowest gross score for the week; he will need to fly out the blocks this week starting out at 3-under par (that would be a record comeback win) but if anyone is capable of going low on this track then it's Schauffele.
Predicted Winner:
Scottie Scheffler: Having crunched lots of key data, GolfMagic is very much settled on Scheffler as the winner of the 2023 FedEx Cup; we think his form from tee to green this season, notably his GIR percentage, is thoroughly deserving of a FedEx Cup for the first time in his career; his putter has been stone cold just about all season but he did look more comfortable on the greens with his new TaylorMade Spider en route to a runner-up spot at the BMW Championship last week; if he can just putt averagely for once then it will be curtains for the rest of the field; the stats are on his side with a 38% win probablility and he is safe in the knowledge that 50% of the last four FedEx Cup winners have started the week on 10-under par.
GolfMagic Fantasy Lineup: 2023 Tour Championship
- Scottie Scheffler (c)
- Xander Schauffele
- Lucas Glover
- Wyndham Clark
- Si Woo Kim
Who wins the FedEx Cup this week? Will Scheffler's putter finally warm up? How has your GolfMagic Fantasy Team got on this season? Have you been lucky enough to win any of our Callaway prizes this season? Share your thoughts and comments over on the GolfMagic social media channels.
